How to Bet on MMA

                                                                        Photo by Derrick Treadwell on Unsplash

Table of Contents:

1. Understanding Betting Odds
2. MMA Betting Markets
3. Betting Strategies
4. MMA Betting Glossary
5. Additional Resources

As MMA grows in popularity, so does betting on events like UFC fights. But wagering on chaotic fistfights can seem daunting for beginners. This MMA betting guide will take you through the basics of betting on MMA bouts.

Understanding MMA Betting Odds and Implied Probability

Before wagering, it's important to know how betting odds work and how they relate to the implied chances of an outcome occurring.

Betting odds represent potential payouts relative to the perceived likelihood of each outcome. The longer the odds, the more a sportsbook will pay out for that result.

Odds also reflect implied probability - how often an outcome should occur based on the odds. For example, odds of -200 imply a 66.7% chance of happening (calculated by 200/(200 + 100).

Converting odds to implied probabilities allows bettors to assess if betting on certain fighters and outcomes is valuable compared to expectations.

MMA Betting Markets

Moneyline: A moneyline bet is the most popular wager on an MMA fight. This wager involves picking the fighter you think will win the match outright. Odds are adjusted based on each fighter's perceived chances of winning. The favorite has negative odds (e.g., 180), while the underdog's odds are positive (e.g., +150).

Point spreads set a margin of victory one fighter must achieve to "cover the spread." If Fighter A is -2.5 vs. Fighter B, you will bet on Fighter A to win by over 2.5 points. This creates a handicap to make lopsided fights more interesting betting propositions.

Totals: You can bet on whether a fight will last under or over a set number of rounds. Oddsmakers establish this "total" based on the fighters' styles and averages. Bet whether you think the bout will fall short or go long compared to expectations.

Prop Bets: Prop (proposition) bets allow you to wager on outcomes besides just the winner, like:

• How a fight will end (KO, submission, decision, etc.)
• Whether the fight goes the distance or not
• Which round will it end in
• Whether either fighter scores a takedown

MMA Betting Strategies and Tips

• Shop for the best odds: Compare odds from multiple sportsbooks when betting on fights. Lines can vary, especially for underdogs or close matchups. Finding the best potential payout for your wager maximizes value.

• Weigh recent form: Research fighters' recent performances rather than just relying on their overall record. Fighters evolve, developing new skills or declining with age/wear. A 5-1 fighter on a 5-fight win streak is more promising than a veteran who is 5-1 in their last six but won 5 straight years ago.

• Study fighter styles: How two styles matchup is crucial in MMA. A skilled striker can exploit a weak grappler. But they may struggle against an elite wrestler who can take them down. Identify fights where a matchup favors one fighter's strengths over their opponent's weaknesses.

• Watch weigh-ins: The scale doesn't lie. Fighters who miss weight or look gaunt and drained at weigh-ins often lack stamina and strength in their fights. Significant weight cuts can be a red flag.

• Consider cardio: MMA involves constant action over a long fight. Having the conditioning to maintain technique and output often separates closely matched foes. Watch for fighters who fade late or opponents who turn up the pressure in championship rounds.

MMA Betting Glossary

Moneyline: Betting on a fight's outright winner.

Parlay: Combining multiple bets for a higher payout.

Proposition Bet (Prop Bet): Wager on fight outcomes besides the winner.

Over/Under: Betting on whether a fight will last more or fewer rounds than a set total.

Push: When a bet ties with no winner or loser.

Favorite: The fighter expected to win with lower odds—the (-) side fighter.

Underdog: The fighter expected to lose with higher odds. The (+) side fighter.

Line Shopping: Comparing odds at various sportsbooks for the best value.

Juice:  The commission or vig sportsbooks charge on wagers.

Weight Classes: Ranges like heavyweight and bantamweight that set fighter size limits.

Tap Out: Ending a fight by submitting or "tapping out" from an opponent's submission hold.

Technical Knockout (TKO): The referee stopped the fight because the fighter could not defend.

Split Decision: Judges disagree on the winner. Two judges pick one fighter, one the other.

Unanimous Decision: All three judges agree on the same winning fighter.