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Baseball is known as America's pastime, and betting on MLB games is a popular tradition for fans. But wagering on baseball can seem daunting for beginners with all the data, odds, and bet types to understand. This page will demonstrate how to bet on baseball by explaining key markets, strategies, and terms to know. This helpful introduction will prepare you to place your first MLB bets!
Understanding MLB Betting Odds:
Understanding MLB Betting Odds:
MLB game odds are displayed on money lines showing the payouts for each team to win straight up. Heavy favorites have short minus odds like -150, meaning you risk $150 to profit $100. Underdogs have positive odds like +125, where a $100 bet profits $125.
These odds also reflect implied probabilities - the percentage chance of an outcome happening. For example, -150 odds equate to a 60% implied probability (150/(150+100). This means sportsbooks think that team has a 60% chance of winning. +125 odds equal 44.4% implied probability (100/(125+100).
Knowing how to convert odds to probabilities is key to assessing if a team's chances to win are higher or lower than the oddsmakers have set. This allows you to find betting value on teams with odds exceeding their chances.
MLB Betting Markets
The most common MLB wagers are:
- Moneyline: Betting on a team to win the game
- Run line: Handicap with 1.5 run spread
- Totals: Betting Over/Under on total runs scored
- Prop bets: Wagering on player/game outcomes besides the winner
MLB Betting Strategies
Some key strategies for wagering on baseball include:
- Bankroll Management: Never wager more than 1-5 percent of your dedicated MLB bankroll on any one game.
- Line Shopping: In order to get the best price possible, sports bettors should have several accounts available to them.
- Target home underdogs: Home underdogs often provide value, with energized crowds helping overcome the listed odds. Look for + money home dogs.
- Follow line moves: Substantial line movements towards one team signal sharp money targeting that side. Follow the steam.
- Bet team totals: Identify high-scoring teams poised to go over their team total rather than game totals. Removes pitching from the equation.
- Pay attention to bullpens: A weak bullpen can lead to late scoring and blown leads. Factor in relief pitching.
- Check the weather: Wind blowing out favors Overs. Cold temperatures suppress scoring. Monitor conditions.
- Know park factors: Certain ballparks favor hitters and high scores. Coors Field sees more runs than pitcher-friendly parks.
- Fade or back starting pitchers: Track their recent stats and trends to identify if they are overvalued or undervalued. Bet on pitchers likely to outperform expectations.
MLB Betting Glossary
Moneyline: Betting on a game's winner, with odds adjusted based on the listed pitchers.
Run Line: Betting on a team to win by 1.5 runs. The underdog gets +1.5 runs.
Listed Pitchers: Pitchers projected to start. Bets are based on who is slated to pitch.
Totals: Betting whether the total number of runs scored will be over or under a set line.
Juice: The commission fee or vigorish charged by sportsbooks on bets.
Dime Line: A 10-cent difference between the favorite and underdog moneyline odds.
Action: Having action in a game refers to having a bet or wager at risk.
Reverse Run Line: Giving the favorite +1.5 runs and betting on them to cover that spread.
Walk-off Hit: A game-ending hit that scores the winning run in the bottom of an inning.
Fifth Inning Bet: A prop bet on the outcome of just the fifth inning.
First Five Innings: A shortened betting line based on the first five innings.
Push: When a wager results in a tie with no winner or loser. The bet is refunded.
Bankroll: The total amount of money a bettor has allotted for wagering.
Sharp: A professional or sophisticated sports bettor.
Square: An average bettor or member of the general betting public.
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