Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz is the betting favorite when the Madrid Open begins on Wednesday, April 24.
Alcaraz resides in the bottom half of the 96-player bracket and hasn’t played since crashing out in the quarters of the Miami Open to Grigor Dimitrov. The World No. 3 has played only four matches on the dirt since injuring his arm, and who knows what his situation is.
The Spaniard doesn’t have an easy draw either–he’s in the same quarter as Andrey Rublev and Holger Rune. Still, Alcaraz has a potential third-round matchup with Lorenzo Musetti that’s anything but certain. Rublev, Rune and Ugo Humbert are no joke on the dirt, and Jan-Lennard Struff is coming off his first career clay court title in Munich.
If getting out of his quarter wasn’t tricky enough, the other side of his half is no picnic. No. 4 seed Alexander Zverev has played a handful of matches on the dirt without any titles and could see Tomas-Martin Etcheverry in the Round of 32. Tommy Paul or Francisco Cerundolo would be potential Round of 16 matchups, and he could meet Estoril champ Hubert Hurkacz or Sebastian Baez in the quarters.
Baez is the most intriguing player in this half of the draw. He’s won more matches on dirt this season than anyone else, and he's also won a pair of solid clay court titles. Some nagging injuries have affected his recent results, but he has the game to win this event.
Arthur Fils, Luciano Darderi, Mariano Navone, and Nuno Borges can pull off early round upsets as underdogs.
Top seed Jannik Sinner is in the same quarter as Casper Ruud. Sinner is dealing with an injury, and it makes sense for the Italian to play it safe to be healthy for Rome. His quarter is loaded with young dirt ballers like Alejandro Tabilo, Flavio Cobolli, Joao Fonseca, and Ruud.
Ruud won Barcelona and is 11-2 on the red dirt. He is playing well. Ruud has dropped only four sets during his 13 matches on the dirt, which would be a difficult matchup for anyone and not a fun draw for Sinner.
Daniil Medvedev is the top seed in a lighter bottom half of the draw, but I don’t expect much from him. Clay isn’t his favorite surface; he has a formidable game but doesn’t like the clay and has a potentially rough opener with Matteo Arnaldi.
Arnaldi has beaten Baez this season and could take the big Russian down. Houston winner Ben Shelton would be Med's potential fourth-round opponent, possibly Stefanos Tsistapas in the quarters.
Tsitsipas won Monte Carlo and lost the final in Barcelona to Ruud. The Greek No. 1 is playing as well as anyone on the dirt but faces a potentially stiff opening test against Dusan Lajovic. He could meet Jiri Lehecha in the third round if he gets through that one.
This is where it gets interesting. Alex de Minaur is the top seed in that section, and clay court legend Rafael Nadal is also in that section. Nadal opens against 16-year-old American Darwin Blanch. Also in that grouping are Pedro Cachin and Frances Tiafoe, who have been successful on the dirt.
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There you have it. Craig Doyle and I dropped a Madrid Open preview on Tuesday that you’ll want to listen to. We share our favorite championship picks, sleepers, long shots, and players to avoid. Tune in to This Week in Tennis!
